Climate change has already increased the occurrence of wildfires, convective storms, and bark beetle outbreaks, all of which are major drivers of tree mortality in forests. However, the future trajectories of these disturbances are unknown, particularly because they can interact with one another. This study projected changes in disturbance rates and tree mortality across Europe in the 21st century under three climate change scenarios. They predicted an increase in disturbance-induced mortality especially that due to wildfires. These changes will lead to a decline in old forests and an increase in young forests, particularly in the Mediterranean, with implications for carbon sequestration and biodiversity.

European mountain forests have been shaped by human activities, affecting their structure and composition. Using a process-based forest landscape model in the Italian Alps, we assessed how current tree species composition compares to potential natural composition and examined vulnerability to disturbances under climate change. Results show that current forests generally have low naturalness, especially at low and high elevations, and are more prone to bark beetle outbreaks, while potential forests are more susceptible to wind disturbance due to old-growth traits. Our findings highlight that simply promoting natural forest conditions may not ensure resilience to climate-induced disturbances; instead, management should focus on enhancing structural and compositional heterogeneity to reduce future vulnerability.