Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century

Grünig M., Rammer W., Senf C., Albrich K., André F., Augustynczik ALD., Baumann M., Bohn F., Bouwmann M., Bugmann H., Collalti A., Cristal I., Dalmonech D., De Coligny F., Dobor L., Dollinger C., Espelta JP., Forrester DI., Garcia-Gonzalo J., González JR., Hiltner U., Hlásny T., Honkaniemi J., Huber N., Jonard M., Jonsson AM., Kunstler G., Lagergren F., Lindner M., Mina M., Moos C., Morin X., Muys B., Nabuurs GJ., Patacca M., Peltoniemi M., Reyer CPO., Schelhaas MJ., Storms I., Thom D., Toigo M., Seidl R.
March 2026
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Abstract

Climate change has already increased the occurrence of wildfires, convective storms, and bark beetle outbreaks, all of which are major drivers of tree mortality in forests. However, the future trajectories of these disturbances are unknown, particularly because they can interact with one another. This study projected changes in disturbance rates and tree mortality across Europe in the 21st century under three climate change scenarios. They predicted an increase in disturbance-induced mortality especially that due to wildfires. These changes will lead to a decline in old forests and an increase in young forests, particularly in the Mediterranean, with implications for carbon sequestration and biodiversity.

Type
Journal article
Publication
Science 391, 6789

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